Thursday, September 27, 2012

The Syrian discussion

This originally started as a facebook comment that got too long. It is a comment on the following link, which talks about the citizens of Halab, feeling angry/uncomfortable/agitated by the opposition fighters in their city:
 
http://alhayat.com/Details/438804 



the comment that got too long:

"tell me what you think about this:

 I do not believe that these fighters should be regarded as heroes or criminals si that one could easily stand in awe after learning about their good/evil actions. They are mere humans, and to a certain degree, the direct product of their time on earth. So glorifying or demonizing them remains unimportant/trivial. This also applies to the Syrian army fighters and even "mokhabarat" and "Shabeeha".

The question should not be "what crimes did they commit?" but rather "Could the future Syria -regrettably, if any- be able to contain them?". Another question that ought to be replaced is "How long till the regime falls?". This question should rather be replaced by "Could the Syrian environment adapt to a possible premature collapse of the regime?".

These questions are dictated by the fact that the regime has failed to collapse earlier, when its collapse would have meant a peaceful transition of power. The only two arriving points at which the regime could collapse are:

1. A mature (fully developed, as opposed to wise) collapse point, resulting from the evolution of the armed opposition/free Syrian army into a well organized force, cleansing itself from what seems to be "foreign" motivations/fighters/agendas. This is unfortunately impossible, since the same reason causing the survival of the free Syrian army so far, would instantly and exactly become the reason for its fall. This reason/element is the decentralized nature of its organization. Once the armed opposition slips into becoming a uniform force, it will lose a significant portion of its strength, since this un-organization is partially responsible for the number of fighters. Furthermore, it will also lose a significant portion of its flexibility and ability to perform the current maneuvers. Thus, the regime will fail to catch this collapse station, even if the organization of the armed opposition occurs now. In fact, we could regard this event to impossible. As in, they won't be able to organize themselves, but if they did, then they cannot topple the regime.

2. The possible change in the international environment. Causing either the US or Russia to aim for settling the situation. The US will probably do that, due to regional low inertia and high potential reaching boiling point. Unfortunately, this too, when it happens, and it will, shall either take the form of a disastrous direct foreign intervention which is highly unlikely and more than anything disastrous (Libyan style). Or, it could take the form of a suddenly increasing sophisticated support to the opposition (Afghan style). Both of these solutions do not seem favorable/positive/beneficial to the Syrian people.


In fact, and this is where I was heading at all along, there seems to be no possible resolution that would settle this situation to the benefit of the Syrian people, neither on the short nor on the medium term. Unfortunately, and this really brings tears to my eyes, The Syrian people were made to get into a tunnel that reminds us of the Lebanese civil war or the Palestinian holocaust, only difference is that is extends longer in the future with deeper wounds.
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